Keep calm and carry on. This is the message investors are sending after stock markets posted strong gains for the first six months of the year.
Populism and Washington dysfunction are two key risks for markets in 2017, and last week was an important one for both.
The previous year was rife with global political surprises, as politics are now increasingly a place for the “have nots” to wage war on the “haves.”
After months of speculation, on June 23 the UK voted to leave the European Union (EU). Since then, markets have been in turmoil, and many wonder what will happen next, both in the markets and in portfolios.
Our decisions to derisk in the fall of 2015 have sharply reduced drawdowns in the face of recent months’ equity market price action. Last month, we addressed the likelihood of a recession in 2016 and discussed the possibility of further derisking Balentine client portfolios. In March, Balentine’s models were bearish for a seventh straight month. Each time Balentine’s models have produced seven straight monthly bearish signals (2000-2001, 2002-2003, and 2008), a significant drawdown has occurred.
Over the last six months, we have taken decisive steps to preserve capital. The volatility and uncertainty we anticipated late last summer is playing out now, and several markets are moving closer to pricing in a recession.
Continued US expansion and normalizing monetary policy; greater (but select) global exposure; and avoiding specific credit market stresses are 3 key trends.
In its halcyon days before the great European recession, Greece conjured up the sunbaked Aegean Islands, the acropolis, the wars of Troy and of course the Greek theatre. After all, Greeks loved tragedy and comedy in their great amphitheaters of the Peloponnesia. It appears that the Greek economy is once again playing out as both […]
During the second quarter of this year, an almost-eerie calm has settled over markets. For the first time in more than 20 years, bonds, stocks and commodities all rose together, while volatility across all asset classes continued to decline to extremely low levels. This was especially unusual given the domestic economy’s contraction during the first […]
Adrian Cronje was quoted in the story, “Atlanta to be No. 33 most competitive city in world by 2025,” which appeared on the Atlanta Business Chronicle on Friday, June 7th, 2013. The article cites the recent study, “Economist Intelligence Unit’s ‘Hot Spots 2025: Benchmarking the Future Competitiveness of Cities’ report commissioned by Citi.” Despite the great news […]