After more than five years of aggressive intervention in financial markets, the Federal Reserve (Fed) seems on the cusp of ending the greatest experiment in monetary policy history. Through Quantitative Easing, the Fed hoped to create a wealth effect to stimulate spending and investing as the economy slowly reduced the build-up of excessive debt from […]
Earlier this summer, our Research & Papers entry “Interpreting The Sound of Silence” walked readers through different interpretations of the market calm that overtook markets for much of the summer. Since that writing, conditions have become more volatile, as previously highlighted concerns such as geopolitical risk and inflation have begun to play out. Right on […]
As we look to 2014, many are reflecting on a very strong year for domestic stock markets. However, a key component that is missed by many investors and the media alike is the failure to appreciate how much (or rather how little) of that rally has been justified by an improvement in underlying fundamentals. As […]
Once again, our government successfully avoided the looming debt ceiling crisis and threats of a ratings downgrade. Procrastination won out over policy, as our government leaders kicked the can down the road for another three months. This should come as no surprise, as it has happened before and will likely happen again. Despite the intense […]
“If you can keep your head when all about you / Are losing theirs and blaming it on you …” ~ Rudyard Kipling, “If” This rhetorical questioning has certainly resonated over the last six months. Just as we found ourselves soothing fears that the world was not ending through politicians driving us over the “fiscal […]
The New Year is off to a great start for stock markets, with the first two trading weeks of 2013 closing up 2 to 3%. With this fast start for risk assets, it is difficult not to get carried away and want to jump on the bandwagon.
What do the results of the recent U.S. elections – most importantly the re-election of President Obama and the retention of the U.S. Senate by the Democrats and the U.S. House by the Republicans – portend for securities markets?
Despite the recent media frenzy over whether or not Congress and the President will avert the “fiscal cliff,” we have until now resisted commenting for three reasons.
Last month, after much speculation, the Federal Reserve announced a more open-ended commitment to economic stimulus. This action, dubbed “QE III,” has significantly increased expectations of inflation and currency debasement of the US dollar.
As has been the case for much of the year, Europe remains top contender for its potential to create headwinds on the economy and the markets. However, it was not just European citizens that took the month of August off. Last week, Congress broke for recess, leaving many questions unanswered.